2015 Storm Prediction - Forecast By My Secretary
2015 Storm Prediction - Mild or Wild?
Different Predictions and Who's Making Them
I'm posting this blog on hurricane prediction based upon the research that my secretary has done for me, because it's so darned confusing. She thinks that it's very important to predict when and where hurricanes will strike, while I pretty much rely on the weekly forecasts and just take it as it comes. I do see the value in predicting storms to a certain degree, but I'm quizzical as to whether or not to purchase prediction reports like the big insurance companies and Wall Street investors do.Here are my secretary's findings:
- Most storm prediction outlets are forecasting a MILDER hurricane season than last year.
Why? Because they are all predicting that an El Niño will develop, and a strong El Niño (warming of Pacific waters) causes a wind formation that blows the upper winds so hard that it's tough for hurricanes to develop close to the coast of the U.S.
The following are links to the milder forecasts:
North Carolina State University's Report
The Weather Channel's Report
- Now keep in mind that the Weather Channel has predicted a little more active forecast than the universities, and the reason for this is that they're averaging between the above forecasts and the report that came out saying that we'll have a MORE active hurricane season.
The report was issued by Global Weather Oscillations, Inc., who was the only forecasting group to accurately predict SuperStorm Sandy, Hurricane Irene, and correctly predict the number of storms in 2014. Here's their PR ad with a small report:
After noting that GWO predicted 15 hurricanes, I had to take a step back and examine why they said this. Apparently they think that the El Niño will not develop as strongly as the others have said, and that as a consequence we'll have a more active season.
My secretary stepped in and offered a middleman - The Farmer's Almanac. Since you can only get monthly meteorological predictions on the web without paying for them, she found a chart that they posted for free on yearly temperature and rainfall.
They seem to have gotten the last few months right, so I'll entertain the notion that they might be right for the rest of the season. See how the temperature steadily increases, as the precipitation gets lower? Now look at October. Wow. If that isn't an accurate way to predict when we'll get a hurricane, I don't know what is. Considering that SuperStorm Sandy showed up so late in the season, I'm willing to bet that October 2015 is going to be crazy good for us roofers. Lesson to be learned for home owners: Get Your Roofs Fixed Before October 2015.
On to the latest news: We had our first tropical storm of 2015 today, named "Ana". This is strange, because Hurricane Season doesn't officially start until May 18th. What do you think? If we've gotten our first storm early, doesn't that bode toward a more active season already?
Forecasters are saying that Ana should blow off to our south with barely a sigh on Tuesday night, but I've looked at several models and it's quite possible that she'll make a quick stop on Long Island before sauntering off to cooler climes.
All of this leaves us with questions. Why are the Universitys' reports so different from GWO's, and why is GWO so accurate? What's the difference in the modeling software that they're using?
Will this actually help my business to be ready for the next major hurricane?
What do YOU think?
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